Mesoscale Discussion 1182
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0738 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast KS/extreme northeast OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111238Z - 111415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated elevated storms are forming across southeast
   Kansas and could spread into extreme northeast Oklahoma before
   weakening by late morning.  Isolated large hail and damaging gusts
   will be possible, but a watch does not appear necessary at this
   time.

   DISCUSSION...Weak low-level warm advection on the east edge of the
   richest low-level moisture, where convective inhibition is weak, has
   supported thunderstorm development this morning across southeast KS.
   Steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg, along with
   effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt, will favor some organized
   storm structures, including the potential for splitting supercells. 
   The background environment and semi-discrete storm mode could favor
   isolated large hail, and strong downdrafts could reach the surface
   even though the updrafts are likely rooted near or above the 850 mb
   level.  There is a small chance the ongoing storms could produce
   enough of a cold pool to persist a little longer into the day,
   though storm coverage may diminish by late morning as the warm
   advection weakens.  Given this uncertainty, a severe thunderstorm
   watch does not appear necessary, though this area will be monitored
   through the morning.

   ..Thompson.. 07/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37569587 36929574 36649605 36729651 37169696 37949721
               38329727 38529691 38549650 37989595 37569587