Mesoscale Discussion 1185
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1206 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

   Areas affected...East central through south central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111706Z - 111900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development overspreading the region may
   increase and intensify further through 1-3 PM CDT, mostly to the
   southwest of the Greater Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area,
   posing a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts.  Trends are
   being monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent, near the leading edge of the
   mid-level cold core of the vigorous short wave trough digging
   southeast of the eastern Dakotas, has contributed to increasing
   thunderstorm development.  Although boundary-layer instability
   supporting this activity has been initially modest, daytime heating
   in advance of it may be in the process of contributing to moderately
   large CAPE, when coupled with the mid-level cooling.

   Moderate to strong deep-layer shear beneath the associated digging
   northwesterly mid-level jet (30-40 kt around 500 mb) will generally
   remain focused across southern Minnesota into northern Iowa.  So the
   most substantive further upscale growth and organization may be
   confined to the southern flank of the ongoing convection, mostly
   across south central Minnesota.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 07/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   44579540 45349472 46129412 46009307 44069309 43549403
               43729517 44579540