Mesoscale Discussion 1186
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 111743Z - 111915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for large hail (some very large) and damaging
   winds will increase through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm
   watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...17Z surface analysis shows a cold front from northern
   Missouri westward across northern Kansas which is slowly moving
   south. An area of cumulus development has expanded in the vicinity
   of this cold front over the past hour with a few failed attempts at
   (likely elevated) initiation. However, temperatures have now warmed
   into the low 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s ahead of this front.
   This has mostly eroded CINH according to SPC mesoanalysis and RAP
   forecast soundings. As a result, more robust storm development has
   been observed in Marshall and Nemaha counties, and increasing storm
   coverage/intensity will likely continue through the afternoon. The
   environment in this area is quite favorable for splitting supercells
   given MLCAPE around 3000-4000 J/kg and increasing per SPC
   mesoanalysis and long-straight hodographs with effective shear
   around 50 knots. In addition, very steep lapse rates (8 C/km per 12Z
   TOP RAOB) and moderately strong anvil layer flow (forecast to be 50
   to 70 knots) will support a threat for very large hail.
   Additionally, severe wind gusts (some significant) will also be
   possible given the steep lapse rates and extreme instability. This
   severe wind threat will likely become more substantial through time
   as storms grow upscale.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39969716 39989614 39779520 39109449 38269441 37629506
               37829605 38349654 39439742 39969716