Mesoscale Discussion 1187
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

   Areas affected...Central New York...eastern Pennsylvania...and
   northwest New Jersey

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111806Z - 111930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe storm is possible this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms are expected today in the
   vicinity of a compact mid-level wave moving into the Northeast. A
   moist low-level airmass remains in place across the Northeast in the
   wake of TD Fay. Broken cloud cover in the region has led to modest
   surface destabilization with temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
   Despite surface heating and moderately steep low-level lapse rates,
   mid-level lapse rates are very poor (~5.5 C/km) and thus MLCAPE is
   only around 1000 J/kg. These poor lapse rates and the modest
   instability will likely limit the potential for robust updraft
   development, and thus more widespread severe weather. While lower
   tropospheric flow is weakening through the day across the region,
   there is still enough shear (25-30 kts per BGM VWP) for some storm
   organization/maintenance. However, winds remain weak in the lowest 3
   km which will limit the potential for severe winds given the poor
   thermodynamic environment. Therefore, an isolated stronger storm
   cannot be ruled out, but overall, the severe weather threat will
   likely be limited/isolated and thus no watch is expected.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

   LAT...LON   40447633 41337685 42457736 43297757 43367684 43537645
               43627632 43927623 44087633 44247634 44557580 43647494
               41987439 40407481 39857533 39897601 40447633