Mesoscale Discussion 1188
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of south central Minnesota into
   northern/central Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356...

   Valid 111952Z - 112115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for strong wind gusts may begin to increase
   across south central Minnesota into north central Iowa through 5-6
   PM, while storms developing east-southeast of Fort Dodge, toward the
   Waterloo area, pose a continuing risk for large hail and locally
   strong surface gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Storms are beginning to merge near the southern
   periphery of the digging mid-level cold core, east-southeast of
   Redwood Falls.  As this continues, associated surface cold pools
   probably will begin to congeal and accelerate southeastward.  Lift
   above its southern/ southwestern flank, where updraft inflow will be
   characterized by moderately large CAPE on the order of 1500-3000
   J/kg, may support considerable additional upscale convective growth.
    This in turn may lead to further cold pool strengthening and
   increasing potential for strong surface gusts across north central
   Iowa into the 22-23Z time frame. 

   A zone of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, extending
   east-southeastward downstream of the evolving cluster, may continue
   to support more discrete storms, with supercell structures.  Near
   the edge of steeper mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of strong
   deep-layer shear, this activity may continue to pose a risk for
   large hail.

   ..Kerr.. 07/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   44249352 43989291 43359196 42589177 41929251 42179350
               42519453 43519463 43869450 44249352