Mesoscale Discussion 1189
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0307 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Southwest Missouri...far
   northeast Oklahoma...and far northwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 112007Z - 112130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will be needed soon
   downstream of watch 357.

   DISCUSSION...A few supercells have developed in northeast Kansas and
   are tracking southeastward. The strongest of these supercells has
   tracked from Pottawatomie County to Osage County with numerous large
   hail reports and a few reports of hail in excess of 2 inches. The
   environment ahead of this supercell remains very favorable
   (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50-55 kts effective shear per SPC
   mesoanalysis and TOP RAOB respectively) and thus it is expected to
   persist despite HRRR guidance suggesting it may weaken/dissipate.
   Additional storm development is also possible in the region,
   especially near the outflow boundary on the western edge of the
   ongoing convection. Given the favorable environment and the
   expectation for ongoing storms to persist, a downstream watch will
   likely be needed soon.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38209632 38349579 38419433 38229340 37779290 37119222
               36809208 36549207 36149311 36119437 36389519 36999596
               37649638 38209632