Mesoscale Discussion 1190
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

   Areas affected...Southern Kansas...Northern Oklahoma...northern
   Texas Panhandle.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 112100Z - 112330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected this evening across southern
   Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the northern Texas Panhandle. A
   severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Severe storms are expected to evolve from multiple
   regimes across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma late this
   afternoon/evening. Visible satellite has shown cumulus to be mostly
   flat across western and central Kansas thus far as heights have
   risen across the area. The exception is across east central Kansas
   on the western edge of ongoing convection and in northern portions
   of a stationary front extending from near Emporia, KS to Amarillo,
   TX. SPC mesoanalysis shows CINH has eroded across this area. While
   upper forcing remains limited, an outflow boundary from earlier
   convection may be the focus for additional initiation in the next
   few hours. 

   In addition, very hot conditions and deep mixing in the Texas
   Panhandle have led to high based cu along the stationary front. One
   or more storms will likely develop in this region this afternoon and
   gradually become more severe as they move east into a more favorable
   environment. 

   Finally, storms will likely form later this evening along the front
   in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, likely aided by a
   strengthening low-level jet and increasing upper forcing through the
   evening. 

   Once storms form, they will likely be severe given 3500 to 5000 J/kg
   MLCAPE and 8 C/km lapse rates across the region and effective shear
   ranging from 40 to 55 kts per SPC mesoanalysis and confirmed by 18Z
   LMN RAOB. Therefore, a watch is likely late this afternoon/evening,
   but there is still uncertainty about timing. 

   The primary hazards will be large hail (some 2+" possible), and
   severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph possible). The large hail will be
   most likely early in the storms life cycle with severe wind becoming
   the dominant threat as storms grow upscale.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36319732 35849908 35930018 36360110 36870089 37600007
               38379882 39109792 39179702 38599611 37759593 36899594
               36319732