Mesoscale Discussion 1191
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0524 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

   Areas affected...Central Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112224Z - 120000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms ongoing near a weak stationary front have
   produced occasional strong winds and marginally severe hail over the
   last few hours. Storms will likely persist for a few more hours
   suggesting a low-end threat for some gusty winds and hail. A watch
   is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of multicellular storms has
   persisted thanks in part to weak ascent from a subtle shortwave
   trough embedded in northwest flow across Illinois and Indiana.
   MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and 20-25 kt of effective shear should be
   sufficient to support/sustain updrafts capable of gusty winds and
   occasional severe hail as storms move to the south and east along
   coagulating outflow and a subtle surface boundary. A drier and more
   stable airmass exists downstream of the ongoing storms across
   portions of western Ohio that will likely serve as the eastern edge
   of any meaningful severe threat. Storms are expected to gradually
   weaken as they approach this area over the next 2 hours. The limited
   spatial/temporal coverage and marginal organization potential
   suggests that a watch is not needed at this time.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 07/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40008512 39548478 38968501 38818564 38918653 39378743
               39888758 40268732 40368678 40248597 40008512