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Mesoscale Discussion 1192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020
Areas affected...Southeast KS...Southwest MO...Northeast
OK...Northwest AR
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358...
Valid 120011Z - 120130Z
CORRECTED TO REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will sag south into northeast
Oklahoma over the next hour. Hail and wind can be expected.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm updrafts are gradually
strengthening/deepening within an expanding cluster over southeast
KS. This activity has drifted south along the eastern edge of an
intense instability plume characterized by 5000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Earlier updrafts struggled a bit across east-central KS, but cloud
top venting appears stronger over the last hour or so. Additionally,
very large hail is likely occurring with these storms. There is
increasing confidence that an expanding cluster of storms will
emerge, along with a possible notable cold pool. If so, at some
point the forward propagation may begin to increase and the wind
threat would necessarily increase as well.
Local watch extension, or a new watch, may be needed across eastern
OK and northwest AR.
..Darrow.. 07/12/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 37749582 37079469 36129433 36009552 37509638 37749582
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