Mesoscale Discussion 1197
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0117 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360...361...

   Valid 120617Z - 120815Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360, 361
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A wind damage and isolated large hail threat will continue
   to move southeastward from southeastern Oklahoma into northeast
   Texas and far southwest Arkansas over the next few hours. A new
   weather watch issuance may be needed to the southeast of WW 360 and
   WW 361.

   DISCUSSION...The latest IR imagery shows a large MCS located from
   the southern Plains into the Ozarks. The latest mosaic radar imagery
   has the brunt of the MCS across much of Oklahoma with one band of
   severe convection to the southeast of the OKC Metro. These storms
   have recently produced wind gusts in excess of 70 kt. Another band
   of severe storms is located in far southeast Oklahoma. The MCS is
   located in a strongly unstable airmass that is analyzed from
   south-central Oklahoma eastward to southwest Arkansas. The RAP is
   estimating MLCAPE in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range along this
   corridor. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP near Fort Smith has 0-6 km
   shear near 40 kt which appears representative of shear across much
   of the Arklatex. This should be favorable for damaging wind gusts as
   the MCS moves southeastward over the next few hours. Isolated large
   hail may also occur with the more intense cores embedded in the MCS.
   As cells move to the south of the Red River, some weakening could
   occur due to weaker instability across north-central Texas. For this
   reason, the stronger convection is expected to move a bit further
   east across northeast Texas and far southwest Arkansas where strong
   instability is present.

   ..Broyles.. 07/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34999495 35239604 35289671 35079699 34849722 34629726
               34469718 34199699 33939652 33479571 32909522 32729505
               32459487 32229444 32309403 32809351 33389334 34199378
               34999495