Mesoscale Discussion 1201
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0216 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Colorado and far northeast New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121916Z - 122045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity is
   expected through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Upslope flow (weak but around 2km deep per KDDC VWP)
   has advected significant low-level moisture into southeast Colorado
   with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Storms have started to form
   over the higher terrain from the Raton Ridge northward up the
   Colorado Front Range. These storms may struggle to move off the
   higher terrain initially as the airmass farther east remains capped
   per SPC mesoanalysis. RAP forecast soundings show this CINH should
   be mostly eroded by 20-21Z as the boundary layer continues to warm
   in eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. MLCAPE is currently
   around 1500 to 2000 J/kg east of the terrain and is expected to peak
   near 2500 J/kg later this afternoon per RAP forecast soundings. In
   addition, mid-level lapse rates are very steep across the region (~9
   C/km per 12Z GJT and DNR RAOB). 

   Moderate mid-level westerly flow (35-40 kts per FTG VWP) and
   southeasterly low-level flow combined with the favorable
   thermodynamic environment will provide adequate deep-layer shear for
   supercells. In addition, some splitting supercells are possible
   given the relatively long-straight hodographs in the region this
   afternoon/evening. Given the moderate to strong instability,
   supercell storm mode, and very steep mid-level lapse rates, large
   hail (some 2+") will be a concern. In addition, low-level lapse
   rates are also expected to be very steep later this afternoon which
   will support a threat for severe winds. The environment could
   support a few significant (75+ mph) wind gusts, but storm mode will
   likely be the greatest limiting factor for a higher end severe wind
   event. 

   A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed this afternoon,
   but the expectation for a gradual increase in storm
   intensity/coverage makes the exact timing uncertain.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35950316 35470378 35440497 35600533 36950502 38100525
               38810539 39650506 40050413 39360268 37240289 35950316