Mesoscale Discussion 1202
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0251 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

   Areas affected...Southeastern Mississippi...southern Alabama into
   western Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121951Z - 122115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Trends continue to be monitored for the possibility of an
   additional severe weather watch south/southeast of Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 362.  After 4-5 PM CDT, stronger thunderstorm
   development, with potentially damaging wind gusts, may tend to
   become focused across southwestern Alabama and parts of southeastern
   Mississippi.

   DISCUSSION...Southeast of the plume of very moist boundary-layer
   air, now extending across southern Mississippi into central Alabama,
   a drier  environment persists roughly southeast of the Interstate 65
   corridor of Alabama into Georgia.  This has allowed for stronger
   heating/deeper boundary-layer mixing, but with only very weak
   mixed-layer CAPE due to warm temperatures aloft.  This could change
   some with subtle mid-level cooling accompanying the ongoing
   convective cluster spreading across central into southern Alabama,
   but perhaps not enough to maintain vigorous convective redevelopment
   on the leading edge of the forward/southeastward advancing cold
   pool.  Although the environment may remain favorable for the
   persistence of the gust front for period, the potential for severe
   gusts should wane as convection diminishes.

   The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh suggests that continuing
   moist inflow into/above the southwestern flank of the cold pool may
   provide the primary focus for continuing vigorous thunderstorm
   development after 21-22Z.  Although the sea-breeze is advancing
   inland of the Mississippi/Alabama Gulf coast, it does not seem out
   of the question that a cluster of storms could approach the Mobile
   AL and Gulfport/Biloxi MS area accompanied by strong surface gusts
   into early evening.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 07/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31728947 31708868 32118771 32368702 32498578 32968501
               32818423 31498472 30938565 30328737 30248864 30498912
               31728947