Mesoscale Discussion 1205
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0706 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the western Dakotas into eastern
   Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 130006Z - 130200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A conditional risk for few storms capable of severe wind
   and hail may develop this afternoon and evening across portions of
   eastern Montana and the Dakotas. Storm development on the US side of
   the international border is uncertain. A weather watch is unlikely
   though trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite data showed a a developing cumulus
   field underneath an overspreading band of high cirrus across eastern
   Montana into southern Saskatchewan. The plume of higher cirrus marks
   the effective edge of stronger forcing for ascent from an upstream
   shortwave trough moving over the Pacific Northwest. Lift from the
   approaching trough/jet max and continued boundary-layer warming will
   work to destabilize the atmosphere through the next several hours.
   SPC mesoanalysis indicates 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE exists with
   little remaining inhibition. Model guidance and satellite data
   suggests that storms may develop along and just north of the
   international border with little coverage farther south. Strong
   vertical shear from the approaching jet max would favor supercells
   with a damaging wind and hail threat. While a tornado cannot be
   ruled out, low-level shear is not particularly strong. Convective
   trends will be monitored, but current uncertainty suggests a watch
   is unlikely.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 07/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   45720160 45120225 45010326 45300399 46080432 48350435
               48960423 48950228 46720157 45720160