Mesoscale Discussion 1208
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0239 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

   Areas affected...Northwest to Central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 130739Z - 131015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A wind damage and hail threat will be possible over the
   next few hours from northwest Oklahoma eastward across north-central
   Oklahoma and southward to the Oklahoma City vicinity. The threat is
   expected to be too marginal for weather watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass in
   place across the southern Plains with a narrow corridor of lower 70s
   F dewpoints from near Oklahoma City extending northwestward to near
   Woodward. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE along this corridor from 2000
   to 2500 J/Kg. The cluster of thunderstorms will likely move
   southeastward along this corridor of instability into central
   Oklahoma over the next few hours. WSR-88D VWPs in central and
   northern Oklahoma suggest effective shear is around 40 kt which
   should be enough to continue a severe threat for awhile longer. Wind
   damage would be the greatest threat although hail could also occur
   with the stronger cores. However, a strong capping inversion across
   much of the southern plains could keep the severe threat marginal,
   especially as instability begins to drop across the southern Plains.

   ..Broyles/Thompson.. 07/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36529739 36209704 35829678 35469692 35199717 35099755
               35139796 35549878 35799943 36059975 36489988 36759967
               36969939 37089902 37119862 37019821 36529739