Mesoscale Discussion 1209
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

   Areas affected...North-Central/Northeast ND

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 131634Z - 131830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and a damaging wind gust or two are
   possible for the next couple of hours over north-central/northeast
   North Dakota.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over central ND,
   with a warm front extending northeastward into northeast ND and a
   cold front extending southward into central SD. Showers and
   thunderstorms have persistent near this low throughout the morning,
   with recent intensification noted across Benson and Towner Counties.
   These storms appear to align well with the leading edge of the lift
   preceding the shortwave trough moving through the region. 

   Expectation is for isolated severe storms to persist ahead of this
   shortwave for the next few hours, mainly north of the warm front.
   Moderate vertical shear will likely support a few stronger storms
   capable of hail and maybe a strong wind gust or two. A more
   surface-based storm threat is anticipated across eastern ND and
   adjacent northwest MN this afternoon as the warm front continues
   northward and destabilization occurs within the warm sector.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48769983 49039920 49089834 48899754 47519861 47560083
               48769983