Mesoscale Discussion 1210
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the Northeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131654Z - 131830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated strong storm or two is possible this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus clouds have started to deepen and a few storms
   have formed in portions of the Northeast as temperatures have warmed
   into the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70F.
   Despite these warm/moist surface conditions, mid-level warm air has
   significantly reduced instability and lapse rates with MLCAPE
   currently around 500 J/kg. Additional surface heating may increase
   MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg, but that will likely be the maximum.
   Effective shear is currently around 20 to 25 kts per BOX VWP with
   mid-level flow expected to weaken through the day. Therefore, a few
   storms may be able to organize sufficiently for a strong wind gust
   or two, but a poor thermodynamic environment and weakening low-mid
   tropospheric flow should keep the threat limited.

   ..Bentley/Edwards.. 07/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   41887311 42917236 43897141 44487050 44346924 43436989
               42817031 42287024 42036996 41706986 41367046 41297112
               41257179 41327240 41537289 41887311