Mesoscale Discussion 1211
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina...northeast South
   Carolina...southeast Virginia.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131721Z - 131845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms are
   expected this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind will be the
   primary threat.

   DISCUSSION...A cumulus field has expanded across the Carolinas as
   temperatures have warmed into upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in
   the low to mid 70s. This has yielded MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg across
   eastern North Carolina. Expect scattered to possibly numerous storms
   to develop through the afternoon as boundary-layer lift increases as
   the mid-level shortwave, currently over the spine of the
   Appalachians, moves east. KCAE/KLTX VWPs show very weak flow in the
   low to mid troposphere which will not support storm organization and
   a more widespread severe weather threat. However, moderate to strong
   instability (MLCAPE expected to peak near 3000 J/kg later this
   afternoon) should be sufficient for some stronger downdrafts capable
   of producing isolated wind damage.

   ..Bentley/Edwards.. 07/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   33768090 34398119 35538077 36227950 36687750 36827613
               36227565 35557536 35137546 34627621 34377689 33727794
               33497863 33317903 33357939 33768090