Mesoscale Discussion 1212
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

   Areas affected...Southwest WY...Southwest NE Panhandle..Northeast CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131839Z - 132045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible for the next few
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has occurred over southeast WY
   and adjacent northeast CO where modest forcing for ascent along the
   far southern periphery of a shortwave trough overlaps orographically
   enhanced upslope flow. Well-mixed boundary layer is mitigating
   instability but vertical shear is still strong enough to support a
   few more persistent/organized updrafts. Given the well-mixed
   environment, strong outflow winds are possible with any of these
   more persistent/organized storms. Overall severe coverage is
   expected to be isolated, likely precluding the need for a watch
   until later when storms become more widespread and intensity amid
   the better instability farther east.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39720526 40220555 41080558 42480483 42240309 40120337
               39550395 39510480 39720526