Mesoscale Discussion 1213
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0308 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

   Areas affected...Central High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 132008Z - 132215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail
   and strong damaging wind gusts will likely evolve over the central
   High Pains during the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage continues to increase across the
   Front Range amid persistent westerly flow aloft and destabilization.
   Downstream air mass over the eastern CO Plains is deeply mixed and
   the expectation is for cold-pool amalgamation and quick upscale
   growth once the storms reach this area.  Concurrently, strong
   buoyancy continues to build downstream across the central High
   Plains. Recent surface analysis reveals low 70s dewpoints as far
   west as DDC/GCK, with mid 60s approaching the CO/KS border.
   Additionally, the westerly flow aloft atop southerly low-level flow
   is contributing to moderate vertical shear. 

   All of these factors suggest the potential exists for a strong
   convective line to evolve, moving into the central High Plains.
   Large to very large hail is expected over the next hour or two while
   the storms remain more discrete. Thereafter, strong wind gusts will
   become the dominant threat. A few of these gusts could exceed 75
   mph. Given this severe potential, a watch will be needed for
   portions of the central High Plains by 21Z.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41440427 42050370 42050184 40700125 37400199 37120441
               39460465 41440427