Mesoscale Discussion 1214
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

   Areas affected...Northwest/North-Central MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 132052Z - 132245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A convective line is expected to develop across northwest
   MN. Severe threats include damaging wind gusts and brief
   line-embedded tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis over the region places a low
   over far northeast ND (about 30 miles east-northeast of DVL) with an
   occluded front extending southward where it intersect a triple
   point/weak low over southeast ND (about 15-20 miles southwest of
   FAR). A cold front extends south-southwestward from this triple
   point and and warm front extends southeastward. Cloudiness over far
   northeast ND and adjacent northwest MN has stunted heating, but
   forcing for ascent and vertical shear remain strong. 

   The strong forcing for ascent will persist as the shortwave trough
   continues eastward, fostering continued thunderstorm development
   near the surface low. The greater buoyancy while likely remain south
   of the region, but the sustained ascent coupled with the strong
   vertical shear continues to favor the development of a convective
   line. Recent radar imagery has shown a forward surge west of HCO,
   which could be the beginnings of this line. Damaging wind gusts will
   be the primary severe threat, but the low-level southeasterly flow
   suggests some line-embedded tornado potential exists as well.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

   LAT...LON   47199609 47589736 48189750 48799727 49049651 48809410
               47359421 47149500 47199609