Mesoscale Discussion 1217
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0734 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

   Areas affected...Southern Minnesota eastern South Dakota and
   northwest Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 140034Z - 140230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging winds gusts will be possible
   this afternoon and evening. Storm development is uncertain but a
   weather watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus along a cold front across eastern
   South Dakota has shown signs of deepening over the last hour. Lift
   from an approaching shortwave trough over the western Dakotas is
   forecast to continue to overspread the area eastward this evening.
   Height falls and mid-level cooling are contributing to a
   moderate/strongly unstable atmosphere with SPC mesoanalysis
   indicating 2000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. While inhibition is low, storms
   have been slow to organize likely due to relatively warm mid-level
   temperatures above 10C. Convective initiation is still uncertain
   across much of southwestern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. If
   storms are able to develop, effective bulk shear of 35-50 kt would
   favor a mixed storm mode of supercells and line segments with a
   threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado given moderate
   veering of low-level wind profiles. 

   Hi-res guidance shows considerable uncertainty on overall storm
   coverage and intensity. Storm development may be delayed until
   convection to the west of the area begins to interact with the warm
   sector later this evening. Convective trends will be monitored, and
   a weather watch is possible.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 07/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

   LAT...LON   42959557 43689456 44509405 45299412 45719427 46059471
               46199551 45979619 45299641 44479671 43749708 43199759
               42809746 42679690 42599639 42859578 42959557