Mesoscale Discussion 1218
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0855 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

   Areas affected...central KS...central NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 140155Z - 140300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch to the east of severe
   thunderstorm watch #366 will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic this evening shows a north-south oriented
   thunderstorm cluster from southwest NE into northwest KS.  The North
   Platte ASOS recently observed a 76-kt gust at 842pm CDT.  Surface
   analysis over central KS into central NE shows a moist boundary
   layer evident by dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 deg F. 
   Although temperatures will gradually cool this evening, moderate
   instability resides over the discussion area.  The 7pm CDT North
   Platte, NE observed sounding showed 2600 J/kg MLCAPE and an 8.5
   700-500mb lapse rate.  KUEX VAD has shown only a slight
   strengthening in 1-2km AGL flow over the past hour, but additional
   intensification of the LLJ is expected this evening, which should
   aid in northward moisture transport and isentropic lift.  It is
   uncertain how far east a risk for severe gusts will exist before
   storms weaken and the environment becomes less supportive for severe
   gusts.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 07/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38300027 41349916 41299736 38319861 38300027