Mesoscale Discussion 1220
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0758 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

   Areas affected...extreme northern Iowa...southeast Minnesota...and
   northwest Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141258Z - 141430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will pose a risk for isolated marginally severe
   hail this morning as they move through northern Iowa, southeast
   Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe threat does not appear to
   warrant a severe thunderstorm watch at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have recently undergone some increase in
   intensity this morning from northern IA through southeast MN and
   western WI. These storms are elevated above a stable surface layer,
   and are developing in association with an MCV and theta-e advection
   along the low-level jet in a narrow corridor just ahead of a cold
   front. The atmosphere is moderately unstable with 1000-2000 J/kg
   MUCAPE with modest mid-level lapse rates. The stronger vertical
   shear profiles remain just west of this region, and some increase is
   expected through the morning. Mostly multicells are expected
   initially, but some mid-level updraft rotation is possible in some
   of the cells.

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 07/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43289423 43889361 45269257 45309156 44379084 43429201
               43079358 43289423