Mesoscale Discussion 1222
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1111 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of MA...CT...and RI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141611Z - 141815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of MA,
   CT, and RI over the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Cluster of thunderstorms moving into central MA has
   recently shown modest intensification as it moves southward into
   slightly more unstable air. Current mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE
   around 1000 J/kg in the vicinity of these storms, with a pocket of
   MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg over RI and adjacent southern MA. Vertical
   shear across the region is generally weak (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear
   less than 25 kt) but some slightly stronger shear is currently in
   place across RI and adjacent southern MA. This weak vertical shear
   should limit storm organization and updraft persistence. Even so,
   steep low-level lapse rates (i.e. greater than 8 deg C per km)
   within the well-mixed boundary layer downstream could still
   contribute to the potential for strong outflow from these storms,
   resulting in isolated damaging wind gusts.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 07/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   42697307 42997244 42467107 41617098 41447229 41987326
               42697307