Mesoscale Discussion 1223
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern Colorado and far northeast New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 141853Z - 142030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected this afternoon across much of
   eastern Colorado. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary
   threat. A watch will likely be needed this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny skies has allowed significant heating
   across eastern Colorado with warm well-mixed conditions along the
   Front Range from Denver southward. Storms have already started to
   form over the higher terrain due to terrain circulations and modest
   (2km deep) upslope flow. A lack of low-level moisture may initially
   limit severe potential as MLCAPE along the front range is only 250
   J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. However, a richer theta-e airmass is
   advecting westward and will continue to destabilize the region ahead
   of these storms. Once these storms move east and encounter the
   better moisture, severe potential is expected to increase
   substantially. 

   While mid-level westerly flow is relatively weak (25-30 knots),
   low-level easterly flow will compensate for effective shear around
   35 to 40 knots. This shear should be sufficient for supercells,
   especially as instability increases. These storms will pose a threat
   for large hail and damaging winds initially amid very steep (~9
   C/km) lapse rates in the lowest 4-5 km. The damaging wind threat is
   expected to increase with eastward extent as storm coverage
   increases and storms eventually congeal into one or more clusters
   with bowing segments, some of which could produce significant (75+
   mph) wind gusts.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   40060207 40230363 40390511 40240563 39670567 38840540
               37380483 36510483 36220453 36070380 36320304 36760245
               37030203 37260197 37840209 39340198 40060207