Mesoscale Discussion 1224
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the Arklamiss into southwest
   Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141915Z - 142045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few wet microbursts may produce isolated damaging wind
   this afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...A few storms have formed in southeast Arkansas along a
   stationary front which extends southeastward across southern
   Mississippi. Additional development is expected in this region in
   the next hour in an uncapped environment with 3500 J/kg MLCAPE per
   SPC mesoanalysis. Effective shear is quite weak with less than 30
   kts of flow in the lowest 6 km per area VWPs. The lack of shear
   should limit storm organization and thus preclude a more widespread
   severe weather threat. However, despite nebulous storm organization,
   some threat for wet microbursts is possible given the strong
   instability and DCAPE around 1000 to 1200 J/kg.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33519172 33309060 32468984 31868974 31049038 31649146
               32209197 33069210 33519172