Mesoscale Discussion 1225
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0314 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

   Areas affected...Far Southeast MN...Northeast/Central/Southwest
   IA...West-Central WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 142014Z - 142215Z

   CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT STATE IN AREAS AFFECTED

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along
   the front over the next few hours. Some large hail and/or damaging
   downbursts are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from near
   RST southwestward across north-central IA and west-central IA into
   eastern NE. A pre-frontal trough precedes this cold front, extending
   from about 10-15 miles east of RST MN southwestward across to OMA.
   Diurnal heating/mixing has brought temperatures into the mid/upper
   80s ahead of the front across IA, with dewpoints largely in the low
   70s. Despite these warm and moist conditions, warm temperatures
   aloft have resulted in too much convective inhibition for any
   development along front. However, recent mesoanalysis estimates the
   heating has finally eroded much of this convective inhibition,
   evidenced by increasing cumulus field ahead of the front. Some wave
   clouds are still present over central IA, where some minimal
   convective inhibition still exists. 

   Given these conditions, thunderstorm development is anticipated
   along/ahead of the front as it continues southeastward through the
   destabilized environment downstream. In addition to the instability,
   this area is on the southern edge of of stronger west-southwesterly
   flow, which is contributing to around 40-50 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear.
   As a result, a few strong to severe storms are possible. Both large
   hail and damaging downburst winds are possible with any of the
   strong, more persistent updrafts.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 07/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41999559 43339365 44939139 44338986 43059123 40809430
               40889583 41999559