Mesoscale Discussion 1230
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

   Areas affected...central through eastern Kansas into northwest
   Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 150607Z - 150700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Threat for a few strong to damaging wind gusts and some
   hail will exist through the early morning across a portion of
   central through eastern Kansas. Trends are being monitored for a
   possible WW.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing in multiple regimes
   including across southwest Kansas in association with an MCV as well
   as across south central and southeast Kansas within an evolving warm
   advection regime. Objective analysis indicates a reservoir of
   moderate instability remaining across eastern Kansas with 2000-2500
   J/kg MLCAPE. Storms have recently shown some intensification and
   organization across south central KS, and this activity will
   continue to be monitored for persistence and possible evolution into
   a forward propagating line/cluster as it develops eastward through
   the moderately unstable environment.

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 07/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38009831 38479804 39029673 38899590 38209572 37429660
               37379808 38009831