Mesoscale Discussion 1231
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast MIssissippi...far southeast
   Louisiana...Southwest Alabama...and the western Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151724Z - 151900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated wet microbursts are possible through the
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous storms have already developed along the sea
   breeze in southern Louisiana and southern Alabama/FL panhandle with
   additional storms developing north into south-central Alabama. This
   area will be the favorable corridor for numerous storms beneath
   cooler mid-level temperatures. Continued storm development is
   expected through the afternoon along merging outflows and the sea
   breeze. MLCAPE around 2500 to 3000 J/kg will support vigorous
   updraft growth, but very weak shear will limit longevity and thus
   organized severe potential. However, this very weak shear (at or
   below 15 kts per area VWP and RAP forecast soundings) will support
   significant water loading of updrafts and the potential for some wet
   microbursts. The environment is not overly favorable for wet
   microbursts, but given the number of storms expected, isolated
   damaging winds are possible from a few of them.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29598963 29709046 30029090 31448998 32208948 32598870
               32568747 32328654 31528540 30708513 30178559 30148673
               30138806 29878902 29598963