Mesoscale Discussion 1233
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0110 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern MO...Southwest/Central IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 151810Z - 152015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards,
   including a few tornadoes, are anticipated this afternoon from
   central MO into central IL.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar and satellite imagery reveals an MCV
   from last night's storms just east of MKC, with associated showers
   and thunderstorms (and attendant cloud cover) spreading
   eastward/northeastward from northern/central MO into
   northern/central IL. Broad area of low surface pressure associated
   with this MCV exists from central MO to near the MO/IA/IL border
   intersection, with an embedded surface low over central MO (about 40
   miles north of COU). Outflow-reinforced boundary extending
   southwestward from this low has effectively become the cold front,
   while a warm front also extends from this low east-northeastward
   into central IL. 

   The warm sector is currently characterized by temperatures in the
   mid 80s, mid 70s dewpoints, and weak southerly/southeastward surface
   winds. Some convective inhibition remains, but the combination of
   continued diurnal heating and ascent attendant to the front and MCV
   is expected to overcome this inhibition, resulting in convective
   initiation. Warm and moist conditions will support moderate
   instability. Enhanced mid-level flow atop the
   southerly/southeasterly surface winds will result in moderate
   vertical shear, with at least some modest low-level curvature. The
   resulting environment conditions are supportive of initially
   discrete storms capable of all severe hazards, including a few
   tornadoes. Linear character to the ascent suggests growth into one
   or more bowing segments, or perhaps even a coherent convective line,
   is likely. Once this occurs, the primary severe threat will
   transition to damaging wind gusts.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 07/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37799358 39059202 39239192 39659117 39999042 40128985
               40158954 39818894 38048885 37089203 37799358