Mesoscale Discussion 1235
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

   Areas affected...The Colorado/northeast New Mexico Front Range into
   the western OK/northwest TX Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 151940Z - 152115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity is
   expected through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been mainly confined to
   the higher terrain thus far, but recent development in El Paso
   county suggests inhibition has eroded enough east of the mountains
   for surface based storm development. Therefore, expect more storms
   to move off higher terrain/form in the upslope flow regime along the
   Front Range over the next few hours. Moderate instability (1500-2000
   J/kg MLCAPE) and moderate to strong effective shear (40-45 kts) will
   support supercells as the primary storm mode initially. Through
   time, upscale growth is expected with storms eventually congealing
   into an MCS across southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico into the
   TX/OK Panhandles. 

   Convective hazards will follow storm mode with an initial threat of
   both large hail and damaging winds becoming primarily a severe wind
   threat by later this evening as storms become more linear. 

   A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed this afternoon,
   and may need to be issued relatively soon if additional storms
   develop east of/move off the mountains.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   38470510 39430506 39360396 38520208 37400202 36380221
               35660269 35600329 35720408 36290449 37230486 38470510