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Mesoscale Discussion 1236 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020
Areas affected...Illinois and far eastern Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 373...374...
Valid 152235Z - 160000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 373, 374 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe weather will remain likely across WW373 and 374
into this evening. All modes of severe weather including a few
tornadoes will be possible. A small downstream watch may be needed
for far eastern Illinois.
DISCUSSION...22z surface analysis showed the center of an MCV was
located across northwest Illinois. A broken band of storms with a
few semi-discrete supercells were ongoing ahead of the MCV from
north central Illinois, southwest into far eastern Missouri. These
storms are expected to persist thanks to moist and unstable
conditions with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s across much
of Illinois. 0-1 km SRH of 150-300 J/kg, as sampled by the ILX VAD,
supports low-level updraft rotation. Several supercells and line
mesovortices have been observed suggesting all severe hazards,
including a few tornadoes, remain possible.
There is some uncertainty on the longevity of severe convection
across eastern portions of WW373/374. Drier surface conditions and
weaker wind fields toward the Indiana border suggest that convection
will gradually weaken as it encounters lesser instability and weaker
low-level shear away from the MCV. However, a small downstream watch
may be needed to cover any short-term threats that persist with
storms this evening.
..Lyons/Edwards.. 07/15/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 37939090 41648889 41458745 38658755 38548759 38628870
37339081 37939090
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