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Mesoscale Discussion 1237 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020
Areas affected...Eastern CO...Eastern NM
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375...
Valid 152314Z - 160115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375
continues.
SUMMARY...Convection should spread east across the remainder of
ww375 later this evening. Wind/hail remain possible.
DISCUSSION...With the upper ridge remaining centered over TX,
several weak disturbances, likely convectively enhanced, are
rotating across northern Mexico into NM/CO. One such feature may be
enhancing thunderstorm activity across southern CO that is now
shifting east of the higher terrain. Another disturbance may be
located along the AZ/NM border, and this appears partly responsible
for upscale growth over NM. In both cases, boundary-layer heating is
the primary driver, along with orographic forcing. Over the next few
hours, convection should spread across the southwestern High Plains
toward the NM/TX border, extending into southeast CO. This activity
will likely persist well into the late-evening hours as LLJ is
forecast to increase across the TX South Plains after sunset.
Watch may be warranted later this evening downstream from parts of
the TX Panhandle into southwest KS.
..Darrow.. 07/15/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34590505 39420477 39310086 34570127 34590505
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