Mesoscale Discussion 1238
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0822 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

   Areas affected...Southern Illinois and western kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 160122Z - 160215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms moving out of WW373 will pose a risk for a few
   damaging-wind gusts and perhaps a tornado for the next few hours.
   WW376 will be locally extended across southern Illinois to cover the
   threat.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across south-central Illinois has
   moved out of WW373 into WW 376 over the last 30 min. Severe weather
   will remain possible with these storms as they move into an
   environment characterized by 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE, and little
   inhibition. Vertical shear weakens with southern extent, with only
   25-30 kt of effective bulk shear across western Kentucky and
   southern Illinois.  A messy, but predominately linear storm mode
   will support a damaging-wind threat with storms as they continue
   south and east. A tornado or two will also remain possible given
   backed low-level flow and 100-200 J/kg of 0-1km SRH. WW367 will be
   locally extended across parts of southern Illinois to cover the
   threat until 04z expiration.

   ..Lyons/Edwards.. 07/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37068863 37528833 37858843 37958899 37868935 37698945
               37358946 37058914 37068863