Mesoscale Discussion 1241
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

   Areas affected...Far Southwest/Southern MO...Northern
   AR...Western/Middle TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161726Z - 161930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected over the next
   few hours. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Recent mesoanalysis estimated a strongly unstable air
   mass in place from far southwest MO through northern AR and into
   western TN. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across
   this region as result of two separate initiation mechanisms: 1)
   low-level convergence along a weakening cold front arcing from
   western TN through northern AR and back into far southwest MO and,
   2) outflow from antecedent storms that moved along the eastern KS/OK
   border over the past few hours. 

   Storms are already developing along the front and recent
   intensification has been observed within the storms along the
   remnant outflow. Given the lack of vertical shear, expectation is
   for occasionally strong updrafts capable of strong water-loaded
   downdrafts. New storm development is then anticipated along the
   outflow of any earlier storms.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37209366 36498976 36568736 35678779 35019221 35939441
               37209366