Mesoscale Discussion 1242
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

   Areas affected...Northwest OH...Western PA...Northern WV
   Panhandle...Western NY

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378...

   Valid 161951Z - 162115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for strong to severe storms capable of damaging
   wind gusts and a tornado or two continues.

   DISCUSSION...Broad surface confluence within the warm sector
   continues to promote widely scattered thunderstorm development.
   Temperatures across the region have warmed into the mid 80s in the
   warm sector, with recent mesoanalysis estimating between 1000-1500
   J/kg of MLCAPE. Enhanced low-level flow stretches across the warm
   sector, which is also along the southern edge of the strong
   mid-level westerlies. Consequently, effective bulk shear decreases
   from around from 40-45 kt around the western PA/NY border vicinity
   to 30 kt across western OH. These conditions remain supportive of
   strong to severe storms. Primary severe threat continues to be
   damaging wind gusts, although a tornado or two also remains
   possible.

   ..Mosier.. 07/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   39718253 43348017 43317682 39697930 39718253