Mesoscale Discussion 1243
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

   Areas affected...Northern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 162049Z - 162215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are possible into the
   evening across northern Minnesota.

   DISCUSSION...A few strong to severe storms may develop along a
   surface trough currently moving through northern Minnesota. Early
   convection degraded the thermodynamic environment ahead of this
   boundary with only modest recovery in the last few hours. However,
   SPC mesoanalysis does suggest around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and mostly
   eroded CINH. Consequently, a few deeper towers and occasional
   lightning have been seen along the boundary in the last 30 minutes.
   The weak thermodynamic environment will likely make storm
   strengthening a slow process, but moderate vertical shear around
   40-45 kts will help support organized storms. Therefore, despite the
   marginal thermodynamics a few strong to severe storms are possible
   through the evening hours. A watch is possible, especially if
   stronger/more sustained updrafts begin to develop.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 07/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   46919591 47759491 48689373 48599262 47749216 46289374
               46009468 46219549 46519593 46919591