Mesoscale Discussion 1244
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0651 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

   Areas affected...western New York and northern Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378...

   Valid 162351Z - 170045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The cluster of storms, including a few supercells, across
   western New York State and northern Pennsylvania will pose a risk of
   damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado through this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in the warm sector
   of a weak surface low ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough
   across northern Pennsylvania and western New York. Enhanced
   southerly flow ahead of the low and trough will continue to support
   scattered strong and occasionally severe convection for a few more
   hours. The most likely corridor for severe weather will be along the
   New York Pennsylvania border where a cluster of stronger storms,
   including a few supercells, is forecast to track eastward. Low-level
   shear remains favorable for mesocyclone development given 0-1km SRH
   of 200-300 m2/s2 near the warm front. However, decreasing
   instability near the warm front and the loss of diabatic heating
   should support a general decrease in storm intensity toward sunset.
   Until then, damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two will be
   possible with these storms as they continue toward the eastern edge
   of WW378.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41197990 43327845 43317677 40897847 40927877 40957953
               41197990