Mesoscale Discussion 1245
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

   Areas affected...Southwest KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 170722Z - 170845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A thunderstorm cluster in southwest KS will develop
   east-northeastward toward central KS through the early morning
   hours.  A marginal hail/wind threat may accompany these storms, but
   a watch is not needed.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms that originated across the
   northwest TX Panhandle several hours ago is now moving
   east-northeastward in southwest KS.  The convection is being
   maintained by convective outflow interacting with warm advection on
   the nose of a 30-35 kt low-level jet, and new cells will tend to
   develop eastward in the zone of larger buoyancy.  Isolated strong
   outflow gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible in the
   short term with these storms, given midlevel lapse rates greater
   than 8 C/km and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg.  However, convective
   inhibition will increase with time and eastward extent, and warm
   advection will begin to weaken after about 09z as the nocturnal
   low-level jet veers to more southwesterly and begins to weaken.  As
   a result, the convection is expected to diminish near or a little
   after 09z.

   ..Thompson/Edwards.. 07/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37669864 37449892 37369979 37490021 37760037 38040027
               38190000 38309976 38419925 38399892 38299867 38059860
               37669864