Mesoscale Discussion 1247
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

   Areas affected...Western/Central ND

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 171710Z - 171845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected soon across western and
   central ND. All severe hazards are possible, including greater than
   2" hail and a tornado or two. Threat for significant wind gust over
   75 mph will also exist later into central ND.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown an increase in
   vertical development across northwest ND as the leading edge of the
   ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough begins to
   interact with the destabilizing air mass across the northern Plains.
   Recent radar imagery indicates quickly storm development in this
   area is underway, with some lightning also noted. The airmass in and
   downstream of the ongoing storm will continue to destabilize amid
   low-level moisture return and robust daytime heating. Mesoanalysis
   currently estimates MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg already exists across
   the area, with strengthen buoyancy anticipated throughout the day as
   temperatures and low-level moisture increase. Additionally, enhanced
   westerly flow atop southeasterly surface winds supports strong
   vertical shear.

   All of these factors suggest severe thunderstorms will likely
   develop soon across western ND, before then tracking eastward into
   central ND as a strong convective line. Initially discrete mode will
   favor large to very large hail as the primary severe threat, with a
   tornado or two and strong winds also possible. Later linear mode
   will favor strong to significant wind gusts (i.e. greater than 75
   mph) as the primary severe threat. Line-embedded/QLCS tornadoes are
   also possible.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47850311 48880228 48849903 46420026 45970118 46250306
               47850311