Mesoscale Discussion 1249
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

   Areas affected...Central North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379...

   Valid 171925Z - 172100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for severe thunderstorms continues across central
   and northeastern SD. All severe hazards are possible, with strong
   wind gusts as the primary threat.

   DISCUSSION...Impressive wind signature noted earlier with the severe
   thunderstorm over northern McHenry County (now in Pierce County) in
   north-central North Dakota. Low-level moisture return continues
   ahead of this storm, and those surrounding it, with low 70s
   dewpoints now reaching the International Border. Additionally, very
   warm conditions exist downstream, with temperatures in the low to
   mid 90s. These warm and moist conditions beneath steep mid-level
   lapse rates are supporting extreme instability. Recent mesoanalysis
   estimates MLCAPE around 4500 J/kg across central ND, decreasing to
   around 1000 J/kg near the ND/MN border.

   Most immediate storm threat exists downstream of the storm over
   Pierce Counties. In this area, strong damaging wind gusts appear
   likely over the next hour or so. Given this anticipated linear
   development and resulting fast storm motion, an eastward expansion
   of the watch will likely be needed to the northern ND/MN border. 

   Farther west, new storm development and organization is anticipated
   over the next few hours, with an eventual southeastward surge into
   the higher buoyancy.

   ..Mosier.. 07/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   49029855 48819729 47749770 47200086 47400188 48070211
               48420016 48909917 49029855