Mesoscale Discussion 1251
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

   Areas affected...Central ND

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379...

   Valid 172047Z - 172215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Convective initiation appears likely within the next hour
   or so.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery is beginning to show
   more cumulus development west of Bismark as large-scale forcing
   begins to interact with the extremely unstable air mass across the
   region. Surface observations across southern ND show temperatures in
   the low 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. These very warm and moist
   conditions coupled with the steep lapse rates aloft support extreme
   buoyancy. Modifying 17Z RAP soundings for current observations
   yields 7000+ J/kg of SBCAPE. Deeply mixed profiles support less, but
   still extreme, MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. Consequently, once
   storm initiation occur, updrafts will develop rapidly and quickly
   become severe. Initial severe threat will be very large hail (2 to
   3" in diameter). Strong downdrafts will promote upscale growth and
   an eventual threat for significant wind gusts (i.e. 75+ mph)
   downstream.

   ..Mosier.. 07/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47430211 47690177 47620099 46580102 46010170 46220282
               47430211