Mesoscale Discussion 1252
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0509 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

   Areas affected...eastern North Dakota...western/central
   Minnesota...and northeastern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 172209Z - 180015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts are expected across much of
   the discussion area.  A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be
   coordinated shortly with affected WFOs.

   DISCUSSION...An ongoing strong to severe MCS has taken shape across
   northeastern North Dakota.  These storms have a history of severe
   wind gusts, including 50 knots at Grand Forks in the past few
   minutes.  The storms are propagating eastward along a synoptic warm
   front from northeastern North Dakota east-southeastward to near BRD.
    Very strong instability exists southeast of this boundary, with
   MUCAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg amidst steep mid-level lapse rates
   and 70s F dewpoints.  Shear vectors also favor continued propagation
   along the warm front as it migrates slowly northward over time. 
   Latest expectation are that the MCS will begin to take on a more
   east-southeastward motion in tandem with the location/orientation of
   the warm front and instability axis, and severe wind gusts
   (exceeding 80 mph at times) will continue along the leading edge of
   the MCS through tonight.  A southward surge of the MCS toward
   southeastern South Dakota may also occur as well.  45-55 kt storm
   motion estimates along the bowing segment near GFK place this
   complex near the BRD vicinity around 00Z or so.

   Given the aforementioned scenario, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
   be coordinated with affected WFOs in/near the discussion area
   shortly.

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 07/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46049215 47079247 47899367 48339534 48359654 48059773
               47619884 47189899 46199878 45559762 44979612 45099459
               45249319 45599237 46049215