Mesoscale Discussion 1254
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0757 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

   Areas affected...southern/eastern North Dakota...northern South
   Dakota...and a large part of Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379...380...

   Valid 180057Z - 180300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379, 380
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Local extensions of WW 379 have been coordinated. 
   Elsewhere, strong to severe storms will continue to impact both WW
   379 and WW 380 through the next couple of hours.  Widespread
   damaging wind gusts and hail remain likely.

   DISCUSSION...Deep convection has generally congealed into an
   extensive linear complex that extends from BJI westward to near BIS.
   The complex was generally moving southeastward, with a bowing
   segment near BJI collocated with a synoptic warm front in the area. 
   Other storms upstream were generally undercut by outflow (except for
   near BIS), although steep mid-level lapse rates (noted on area 00Z
   soundings at ABR and BIS) continued to support large hail and even
   near-severe wind gusts over the past couple of hours.

   In time, the strengthening low-level jet should provide an increase
   in ambient shear, and strong instability should continue to support
   an ongoing severe threat.  Any tornado threat across valid WW areas
   should be confined to a couple of scenarios - 1) with the bowing
   segment and its intersection with the aforementioned warm front
   across northern Minnesota and 2) with any surface-based convection
   that can evolve near/east of the BIS area and realize the large cape
   and 200-300 m2/s2 effective shear ahead of the surging outflow. 
   Otherwise, large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
   threats with ongoing activity.  Given current convective trends, the
   Minnesota portion of this MCS should traverse central/northeastern
   portions of the state (AXN to DLH) around 230-330Z.  Finally, not
   all of the ongoing severe convection has cleared WW 379.  Local
   temporal extensions of this WW have been coordinated with affected
   WFOs.

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 07/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45690210 46490153 47570008 47999859 47649708 47579563
               48039511 48219466 48039383 47519316 45899306 45119311
               44709411 44849629 45289982 45480197 45690210