Mesoscale Discussion 1255
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0903 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

   Areas affected...northwestern Wisconsin...central/eastern
   Minnesota...and a small part of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 180203Z - 180400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed
   ahead of a mature, severe MCS over north-central Minnesota.  This
   watch may be needed before 03Z.

   DISCUSSION...The ongoing strong to severe MCS continues to
   forward-propagate east-southeastwardly along a warm front located
   from near 45 N BRD eastward along the northern Wisconsin/Michigan
   state border.   The airmass along and south of this front remains
   strongly unstable (MUCAPE around 2000-4000 based on latest objective
   guidance), weakly capped, and appreciably sheared, with low-level
   shear strengthening in tandem with a 30-35 kt low-level jet axis
   centered west of the region.  The aforementioned atmospheric
   characteristics will help to maintain the severity of the MCS as it
   reaches northwestern portions of the discussion area around 04Z or
   so before producing widespread strong to severe wind gusts
   thereafter.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed to
   address the threat, and will be coordinated with local offices
   around or before 03Z.

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 07/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   47439305 47489249 47309096 46878995 46318948 45448949
               45008953 44568984 44349087 44409217 44299314 44349386
               44729398 45069365 45389303 45879301 46559313 47199316
               47439305