Mesoscale Discussion 1256
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1025 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020

   Areas affected...much of Minnesota...northeastern South Dakota...and
   southeastern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380...

   Valid 180325Z - 180530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues along and ahead of an
   extensive linear complex moving eastward/southeastward through the
   region.  Damaging wind gusts are likely, and areas of hail are also
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...A strong to severe linear complex continues to migrate
   eastward across portions of north-central Minnesota (near BRD) and
   south to southeastward across portions of southeastern North Dakota
   and adjacent areas.  At this time, it appears that the strongest
   portion of this linear complex is located near the BRD area where
   forward-propagation along the surface warm front and strong
   downstream buoyancy is enhancing organization and fostering bowing
   segments/strong wind signatures on radar.  Damaging wind gusts and
   perhaps a brief tornado or two are most likely in these areas.

   Farther west, surging outflow has tended to temper the strength of
   most convection in the past hour where storms have tended to be
   elevated - especially in southeastern North Dakota.  Still, a risk
   for large hail and damaging wind gusts remains possible as the
   pre-convective environment is characterized by very strong buoyancy
   and appreciable low-level shear.  Any convection that can be rooted
   nearer the boundary or on the warmer side of the boundary will have
   an isolated tornado risk in addition to very large hail and wind
   gusts.  At this time, the most likely candidate for this scenario
   playing out is with storms on the western flank of the MCS.  Still,
   40-50 kt wind gusts have been reported with the passage of the gust
   front located well ahead of heavier precipitation cores, and
   isolated severe wind gusts (or damage) cannot be completely ruled
   out.  Pending convective trends, spatial extensions of WW 380 to
   include portions of east-central South Dakota may be required over
   the next 1-2 hours or so.

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 07/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47619303 47569367 47049439 46459547 46629697 46679866
               46609956 46140019 45280023 44579945 44179816 44109685
               44389536 44729418 45759269 46759192 47599185 47989211
               48079279 47919308 47619303