Mesoscale Discussion 1260
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0930 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

   Areas affected...Northern Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 181430Z - 181630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds are possible this morning with
   ongoing line of thunderstorms. Watch issuance is currently
   considered unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...At 1430Z, a long-lived QLCS is moving into northern
   lower MI. The northern portion of the line has shown some weakening
   trends, but vigorous convection continues along the southwest
   portion of the line. Downstream instability is currently limited,
   but diurnal heating/destabilization is underway across the region,
   with MLCAPE likely to increase into the 1000-1500 J/kg later this
   morning in conjunction with weakening CINH. 

   Effective shear of 30-35 kt will support some organization as long
   as convection remains vigorous. The primary uncertainty is whether
   the QLCS will move too quickly to take advantage of increasing
   buoyancy, or whether there is potential for a more organized
   damaging wind threat later this morning. Watch issuance is currently
   considered unlikely, but this will be reconsidered if there is a
   noticeable uptick in convective intensity along the southern flank
   of the line.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 07/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...

   LAT...LON   44488647 45368526 45758475 45668384 45328336 44518315
               44188355 44178447 44248641 44488647