Mesoscale Discussion 1262
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1143 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

   Areas affected...northern Georgia into the western Carolinas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 181643Z - 181845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development will continue through
   the afternoon hours and may pose a risk for isolated downburst
   winds. A watch is not expected due to the isolated nature of the
   risk.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar and visible satellite imagery shows weak
   convective development already ongoing from northern GA into the
   western Carolinas along the axis of the Blue Ridge Mountains. This
   activity is largely being driven by orographic ascent, coupled with
   parcels reaching their convective temperatures in the upper 80s and
   low 90s. Thunderstorm coverage should increase through the mid to
   late afternoon hours as daytime heating continues boundary-layer
   destabilization and convective outflows initiate peripheral storms.

   Similar to yesterday, this environment is characterized by around
   2000 J/kg MLCAPE, but very weak flow/shear through the column. While
   the lack of supporting shear will greatly limit the overall severe
   potential, steepening low-level lapse rates (already up to 7-8 C/km
   per recent RAP mesoanalysis) may support an isolated wet downburst
   potential through the afternoon and early evening. Given the
   isolated nature of this threat, watch issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 07/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   34608518 35058422 35438337 36108204 36508120 36518051
               36268040 35828056 35258116 34838193 34448278 34118342
               33968432 33938495 34278529 34608518