Mesoscale Discussion 1266
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0518 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

   Areas affected...Western Kansas...Eastern Colorado...and Southwest
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182218Z - 190015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely, posing a
   threat for a few damaging wind gusts. Watch issuance unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Regional mesoanalysis depicts a stalled cold front
   extending from east-central Colorado into northwest Kansas and
   south-central Nebraska. South of this boundary, intense surface
   heating has led to temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100 F.  This
   process has resulted in the exceedance of convective temperatures
   across much of western Kansas, as evidenced by scattered development
   of cumulus and associated weak echoes on regional radar indicative
   of convective initiation. Meanwhile, surface dew point temperatures
   remain in the upper 50s and lower to mid 60s across the region,
   yielding large boundary layer dew point depressions and inverted-V
   soundings (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) amid a weakly sheared
   environment.

   Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected to
   continue into the early evening. A few of the strongest cells may
   produce damaging wind gusts. However, given the isolated nature of
   this threat, watch issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Karstens/Bunting.. 07/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37030034 37040191 37820274 39040282 39780207 40310038
               40419948 40319876 39799836 38449842 37429919 37030034