Mesoscale Discussion 1268
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0836 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

   Areas affected...east Minnesota...much of northern Wisconsin...and
   the western upper-peninsula of Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 382...

   Valid 190136Z - 190330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 382
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage and
   intensity across eastern Minnesota. The airmass remains favorable
   for large hail and damaging wind gusts through the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has increased over the last hour
   across much of east Minnesota as large-scale ascent increases in
   response to the approaching short-wave trough. Given the very
   unstable airmass across the region, coupled with the strong
   effective shear, thunderstorms continue to increase in intensity as
   well. 

   At present there are two main areas of thunderstorm development. The
   first area, across southern Minnesota, is developing within an
   extremely unstable airmass (CAPE values in excess of 6000 J/kg per
   00Z sounding from MPX). The low-level forcing mechanism appears to
   be surface convergence along a modified outflow/front that is
   pushing east with time. These storms will (continue to) pose a
   threat for large hail and damaging winds through the evening. 

   The second area of thunderstorms is across northeast Minnesota, and
   appears to be more closely tied to the influences associated with
   the short-wave trough moving across the northern Plains and southern
   Canada. Here instability is considerable less than farther south,
   but effective deep-layer shear is greater. The airmass ahead of
   these storms remains quite conducive for a wind and hail threat for
   the remainder of the evening.

   Given the eastward progression of these thunderstorms into a
   favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, a wind and hail
   threat may persist east of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #0382. A new
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed by 03Z.

   ..Marsh.. 07/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44679351 47339221 48239034 48358818 47698675 46348698
               44918834 44679351